Analysis: Russia hopes a war in the Middle East will redirect Western public opinion, support and military resources away from Ukraine
A few weeks ago in Dagestan, the Muslim-majority region of the south of Russia, an angry mob, shouting anti-Jewish slurs, stormed Makhachkala airport looking for a group of Jews that were reportedly arriving from Israel. This was not an isolated accident: Dagestan has witnessed other such episodes targeting Jews since the beginning of the war in Gaza on October 7th.
These events are one of the consequences that the war in Gaza is having in Russia, There are at least two possible explanations for them. The first is that the Dagestanis were somehow acting to 'enforce’ Russia’s official position of support for the Palestinian cause, as analyst Alexander Baunov wrote in the Financial Times. If it is plausible to believe that the angry mobs were completely spontaneous, it would not be because Dagestan is madly in love with Vladamir Putin, but rather because Russia’s foreign policy seemed to align, for a moment, to an anti-Jewish sentiment present in the region.
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From Channel 4 News, antisemitic mob storms Dagestan airport looking for Jews
The second possible explanation is that these events show cracks in Putin’s regime, which proved incapable of maintaining law and order in Dagestan and allowed the riots not only to take place, but also to be broadcast internationally. This is certainly not how the Russian president sees these antisemitic episodes. In a well-rehearsed script, Putin blamed external enemies (in this case, spies operating from Ukraine).
The war in Gaza doesn't just have domestic consequences for Russia. After an unusually prolonged silence, Putin stated that the violence perpetrated by Hamas on October 7th was "horrifying" and that it "cannot be justified", but not without having first said that it was "a clear example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East". A few days later, Putin proceeded to publicly host Hamas’s leadership in Moscow. It was a strong signal that Russia took the opposite side of the US and EU, which instead sided, at least at first, very forcefully with Israel.
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From CNN, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping refuse to condemn Hamas attack on Israel
To say that Russia is playing a difficult game in international politics is an understatement. Increasingly isolated after the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, Moscow now tries to apply the same narrative to Palestine that it has applied to its war against Ukraine: Western imperialism, led by the US, is advancing and the only way to stop it is by reacting violently.
By trying to attract the Arab world, which is broadly unanimous in its condemnation of Israel, through diplomacy and propaganda, Putin is hoping to rally more support for his anti-American crusade, since Washington is perceived to be Israel’s strongest ally (Israel and the US are also engaging in this information warfare).
As Prof Mark Galeotti wrote, it could be in Moscow’s interest that Israel become entangled in a prolonged and violent conflict in Gaza. It would not only shift the focus of Western public opinion away from Ukraine, but also redirect the West’s resources. "At a time of ammunition scarcity, every pallet of artillery shells heading to Israel is not bound for Ukraine", says Galeotti, the author of Putin's Wars: from Chechnya to Ukraine.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, RTÉ Europe Editor Tony Connelly on the European Council summit to discuss the situation in the Middle East, support for Ukraine and the EU's long-term budget
The BBC quotes a Russian diplomat's statement to this effect: "Ukraine's sponsors will be distracted by the conflict in Israel. That doesn't mean that the West will abandon Ukrainians. But the amount of military aid will go down….and the course of the operation may turn sharply in Russia's favour."
On the other hand, Russia's army is already engaged in a major, lengthy, and costly war in Ukraine and may not want to open another war front. In addition to the material support provided to Hamas, Russia also has ties to Hezbollah. Although it allowed Israel’s attack on Hezbollah in the past, it is possible that Russia would react militarily if Israel were to target Hezbollah. This is especially concerning as the Russian army has proven to be highly successful in conducting 'hybrid' operations in instances of asymmetric warfare of the type Hezbollah would encounter.
One must not forget Moscow’s military involvement with Tehran either. Although officially denied, Iran helped Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine by sending combat drones, and Russia has similarly contributed to Iran’s defence system. Although none of this means a Russian intervention in Gaza, Putin is playing a dangerous game in the region which could escalate at any moment and give Russia good reasons to intervene militarily.
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From RTÉ Radio 1's Today With Claire Byrne, Ukraininan MP Lesia Vasylenko and former British ambassador to Belarus John Everard on developments in Ukraine as world is focused on the Middle East
Russia seems to be exploiting the war in Gaza to weaken financial, military, and public support for Ukraine in the West. By drawing attention to the "failures" of Western colonialism, Putin hopes to divert attention away from the bloodshed in Ukraine. Ukraine president Volodymyr has said that Russia is already successfully ‘taking away the focus’.
But there has been no quantifiable shift in support to Ukraine since the war in Gaza began – nor are democratic leaders about to abandon Ukraine just because the focus of public debate has momentarily changed. In practice, thought, there is the risk that the US, which has been the most powerful ally of Ukraine and Israel, is going to "play favorites".
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
